Ramadan is the largest commercial period in the Gulf calendar, and it is the one most likely to be measured
wrongly.
The dates move
Ramadan shifts roughly eleven days earlier each year against the Gregorian calendar. A year-over-year comparison
aligned on calendar date will, within a few years, be comparing Ramadan to an ordinary week. That is not a weak
comparison; it is not a comparison.
Every record carries ramadan_period and days_from_ramadan_start so a series can be
analysed by phase.
The pattern inverts
Ordering concentrates around iftar and suhoor. Daytime demand collapses and late-night demand rises. Promotional
intensity climbs sharply. Assortment shifts — dates, dairy, staples and gifting categories move differently from
the rest of the year.
Pooling Ramadan with the surrounding months produces averages describing neither period.
The part clients most often get wrong
The baseline has to be collected before the period starts. A Ramadan analysis commissioned during Ramadan has
no baseline, and one reconstructed afterwards is a comparison against a period nobody observed.
If Ramadan matters to your year, the collection needs to be running by the preceding month. That is a scheduling
fact rather than a commercial one, and we would rather say it early than take the engagement and explain later.