US Grocery Price & Promo Market Data Report 2026 for Retail Pricing Intelligence

Introduction

US grocery price data in 2026 shows a market that has cooled from the 2022 spike but not gone flat. USDA forecasts food-at-home prices to rise 2.4% in 2026, close to the 20-year average of 2.6%, while online grocery now takes more than 19% of grocery spending. Promotions, private label and store-level price gaps decide who wins.

This report brings together public figures from USDA ERS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, Brick Meets Click, PLMA/Circana and Consumer Reports. Each public figure is cited inline. Where a metric depends on Actowiz's own collection of store-level online prices, the cell shows an indicative estimate marked "Est." until measured values from the delivery dataset are loaded.

How to read this report

Public data: figures with a linked source (USDA, BLS, Census, Brick Meets Click, PLMA/Circana, Consumer Reports). Actowiz values: cells marked "Est." are indicative ranges based on the public data in this report, not measured results; they will be replaced with Actowiz's store-level online price collection across US chains. Actowiz values describe online prices shown for selected stores or ZIP codes; they are not shelf audits and not official statistics.

The sections below follow the questions pricing, category and insights teams ask most often: how fast prices are moving, which categories drive change, how fast online is growing, how deep promotions run, how much prices vary by store, and how chains and private label compare.

From Inflation Shock to a Data-led US Grocery Market

US grocery price data shows food-at-home inflation falling from double digits in 2022 to low single digits in 2025–2026. That shift has moved the competitive focus from passing on cost increases to fine-grained pricing, promotion and assortment decisions.

According to the USDA Economic Research Service, food-at-home prices rose 11.4% in 2022 and 5.0% in 2023, then slowed to 1.2% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025 (USDA ERS Food Price Outlook). The September 2026 outlook forecasts a 2.4% rise for 2026, with a prediction interval of 1.8% to 3.0%, and a 1.8% rise for 2027 (wide interval of -5.0% to 9.2%).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the food-at-home index was unchanged in August 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis and up 2.2% over 12 months (BLS CPI, August 2026). In other words, the headline is calm, but category and store-level movements underneath are not.

In-body image: line chart of food-at-home price change by year. File: us-food-at-home-inflation-2020-2027.webp · Alt: "Chart of US food-at-home price changes 2020 to 2027 forecast from USDA ERS"

Source for public column: USDA ERS Food Price Outlook, September 2026. 2021 is omitted because the figure was not quoted in the source page used.

Building a Structured View of Category Pricing

Category-level US grocery price data diverges sharply in 2026, so a single inflation number hides the moves that matter. Beef and sugar are rising fast while eggs are falling steeply.

USDA's 2026 forecasts range from a 29.4% decline for eggs to a 9.4% increase for beef and veal (USDA ERS). BLS data for the 12 months to August 2026 shows nonalcoholic beverages up 3.7% and fruits and vegetables up 3.2%, while dairy slipped 0.3% (BLS).

For a retailer or brand, this divergence means price-gap targets and promotion plans should be set by category. A chain that holds its overall basket flat may still be out of line on beef, produce or beverages in specific stores.

Sources: BLS CPI August 2026; USDA ERS Food Price Outlook. For a monthly view of these moves, see our US grocery price inflation tracker 2026.

How Fast Is US Online Grocery Growing?

Online grocery is growing much faster than retail overall and now accounts for roughly one in five grocery dollars in survey-based estimates. That makes online shelf prices a primary competitive signal, not a side channel.

Brick Meets Click reported US eGrocery sales of $9.8 billion in June 2025, up 27.6% year on year, split across pickup ($4.3 billion), delivery ($3.8 billion) and ship-to-home ($1.7 billion) (Brick Meets Click, June 2025). December 2025 reached a record $12.7 billion, up 32%, with online at 19.0% of total grocery spending that month (Brick Meets Click, December 2025).

In June 2026, Brick Meets Click said online's share of grocery spending had moved from less than 15% at the end of 3Q24 to more than 19% in 1Q26, with Walmart approaching 40% of US eGrocery sales and delivery and ship-to-home growing nearly three times as fast as pickup (Brick Meets Click, June 2026). Across all retail, the Census Bureau estimated Q2 2026 e-commerce at $340.2 billion, 17.1% of total retail sales and up 12.2% year on year (US Census Bureau).

In-body image: bar chart of online share of grocery spending. File: us-egrocery-share-2024-2026.webp · Alt: "Online share of US grocery spending rising from under 15% to over 19%"

These are survey-based estimates for eGrocery and official estimates for total e-commerce; they measure different things and should not be added together.

Promotions and Markdowns: Turning Promo Signals Into Market Intelligence

Promotions are where low headline inflation turns into real competition. With volume flat, chains and brands use temporary price cuts, multi-buys and digital or loyalty offers to protect traffic and share.

Circana data reported by Store Brands puts 2025 food and beverage dollar growth at 3.2% with volume gains of only 0.2%, and projects 2026 unit volume between -1% and +1% (Store Brands, citing Circana). When volume barely moves, promotional depth and frequency become key levers.

Public, consistent US grocery price data on promotion depth by retailer is scarce. That is why store-level online collection is useful: it records each promo price, the offer wording and its visible duration, store by store. The table lists the metrics Actowiz tracks, with indicative estimates until measured values are loaded.

Loyalty and digital-only offers should be reported separately from the regular price, because they apply only to some shoppers.

Understanding Store-Level Price Dispersion and Availability

The same product can carry different prices across stores of the same chain, and availability varies even more. National averages hide these local gaps, which is where shoppers notice price differences.

USDA's Food-at-Home Monthly Area Prices (F-MAP) data shows the value of geographic price analysis: it covers 90 food categories across 15 US geographic areas, built from Circana retail scanner data (USDA ERS F-MAP). However, its main dataset spans 2012–2018, so it cannot show 2026 store-level gaps.

Current dispersion and stock signals must therefore come from fresh US grocery price data collection. Actowiz captures online prices and availability for chosen stores or ZIP codes; our US grocery ZIP and store-level price comparison case study describes the approach.

Online prices can differ from shelf prices, and delivery-platform prices can differ from the retailer's own site. Actowiz metrics describe online prices as displayed at capture time.

Private Label and How Chains Compare

Store brands keep gaining unit share, which changes how chains should be compared. A basket that mixes national brands and private label gives a different answer from a brand-only basket.

PLMA, using Circana data, reported record US private label sales of $282.8 billion in 2025, up 3.3%, compared with 1.2% growth for national brands; store brands held 21.3% dollar share and a record 23.5% unit share (PLMA). Over 2021–2025, unit share rose from 21.6% to 23.5%. At midyear 2026, PLMA reported a record 23.8% unit share, with store-brand units up 0.2% while national-brand units fell 0.5% (Mass Market Retailers, citing PLMA/Circana).

In-body image: column chart of private label unit share. File: us-private-label-unit-share.webp · Alt: "US private label unit share 2021 to first half 2026"

To compare chains fairly, Actowiz recommends two baskets: a matched national-brand basket (same UPCs everywhere) and an equivalent private-label basket matched on category, size and attributes. In the most recent public benchmark, Consumer Reports' late-summer 2025 shelf check found Aldi 8.3% and Lidl 8.5% cheaper than Walmart, while Whole Foods was nearly 40% higher (Supermarket News, March 2026). The chain table below shows indicative estimates until the measured dataset is loaded.

Index base: Walmart = 100. The national-brand basket uses identical UPCs at every chain; the private-label basket is matched on category, size and attributes. Values marked "Est." are indicative. Costco is excluded from matched-UPC indices because its pack sizes rarely match; it can be compared on unit price.

How Actowiz Solutions Helps

Actowiz collects store-level US grocery price data so pricing and insights teams can see the market as shoppers see it online.

• Multi-chain data collection – online prices, promotions, availability and pack sizes from US grocery chains and delivery platforms, through our grocery data scraping service.
• Store and ZIP mapping – collection for the stores or ZIP codes that match your trade areas.
• Product matching – UPC/GTIN-first matching with attribute rules for items without barcodes, and like-for-like private-label baskets.
• Promotion parsing – regular, promo, multi-buy and loyalty prices kept in separate fields with offer text and dates.
• Retailer-specific feeds – for example our Walmart data scraping service, separating first-party offers from marketplace sellers.
• Delivery your way – API, CSV/JSON files or dashboards, as in our daily grocery pricing project for US chains.

All collection covers publicly available product and price information, respects site terms and is subject to client legal review.

Conclusion

The 2026 US grocery market looks calm at the headline level, with food-at-home inflation near its long-run average. Underneath, beef, produce and beverages are rising, eggs are falling, online is taking close to a fifth of grocery spending, and private label keeps setting unit-share records.

Teams that use US grocery price data to track store-level online prices, promotion depth, availability and private-label baskets will see these shifts earlier than those using national averages alone. Download the full report or contact sales to scope a US grocery price data feed for your categories and stores.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much are US grocery prices expected to rise in 2026?

USDA ERS forecasts food-at-home prices to rise 2.4% in 2026, with a prediction interval of 1.8% to 3.0%. BLS reported a 2.2% rise in the 12 months to August 2026.

Which grocery categories are rising fastest in 2026?

USDA forecasts the largest 2026 increases for beef and veal (9.4%) and sugar and sweets (6.6%), while egg prices are forecast to fall 29.4%.

What share of US grocery spending is online?

Brick Meets Click estimated online at 19.0% of grocery spending in December 2025 and more than 19% in the first quarter of 2026.

Is private label still gaining share in the US?

Yes. PLMA, using Circana data, reported a record 23.5% unit share in 2025 and 23.8% at midyear 2026.

Where does US grocery price data come from?

Public US grocery price data comes from USDA ERS, BLS CPI and Census releases, while chain-, store- and promotion-level detail comes from collecting online prices at specific stores or ZIP codes.

Are online grocery prices the same as in-store prices?

Not always. Retailers and delivery platforms can show different prices online, and some in-store offers do not apply online. Actowiz data describes online prices as displayed for specific stores or ZIP codes.